Assessment for Sweden (Norrbotten)

Comments: Climate neutrality by 2045 goal has been adopted by the Swedish parliament. However, it suggests that "the separation and storage of carbon dioxide of fossil origin must also be counted as a measure where reasonable alternatives are lacking" - The necessity for capturing CO2 from fossil fuel can be disputed, as models show that a system with no fossil fuel energy is possible.
Sweden aims for a 63% reduction in GH emissions from the ESR sector and 70% from demostic transport by 2030 compared to 1990 and 2010 respectively, although some emissions reductions in ESR sectors might be achieved with 'supplementary measures' - likely to mean offsets.

"Steel industry's changeover to carbon dioxide neutrality is estimated to be able to reduce Sweden's CO2 emissions by about 10%. The emissions in Norrbotten correspond to just over half of this reduction."

A result indicator on GHG emissions reductions is included, "Estimated greenhouse gas emissions from activities listed in Annex I to Directive 2003/87/EC in companies receiving support. (from 5,384 322,00 ton CO2e/year to 2,790,000 ton CO2e/year).

Comments: Aims to reach 100% RES in electricity supply by 2040. It recognises that although Norbotten is the region with the 3rd highest number of wind turbines, the current surplus in electricity production is expected to decrease significantly (section 2.1).
"The measures in the transition plans can be complemented by pillars II and III of the just transition mechanism. In particular, infrastructure needs related to electricity supply or investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, CCS, green hydrogen, electrofuels and ammonia may be made for investments within Pillars II and III."

Comments: The date indicated is 2040 for a 100% renewable electricity supply and a climate neutral system by 2045.
The TJTP is guided by the 'Fossil Free Sweden' strategy.

Comments: There is no explicit recognition and there may be concerns rasied about the use of biomass.
Economic diverisfication is largely limited to businesses (including SMEs) operating in the steel/metallurgy/mining/mineral sectors.

Comments: "[JTF] Favors economic diversification through competence-enhancing [skills] efforts for SMEs in the metal industry's value chain and through research efforts that benefit the industry in a broad way." Most economic diverisfictaion support appears to be planned under the ERDF programme for the Upper Norrland region.

Includes an outcome indicator: SMEs that invest in skills for smart specialization, industrial transformation and entrepreneurship
Includes result indicators: SMEs introducing product or process innovations; Staff in SMEs completing skills development for smart specialisation, industrial transformation and entrepreneurship (by skill: technology, management, entrepreneurship, green skills, other)

Comments: This is only completed in the TJTP for Gotland. The main justification is based on the Commission's assessment (Annex D country reports, 2020).

Comments: Most effort appears to focus on reskilling and retraining. Gender disparity in the workforce is noted, but no specific actions seem to be addressed beyond an assumed natural increase in the representation of women.
Only one reference is made to other groups, [JTF] can provide support for defining strategies and implementing action plans for skills provision, for example by getting students to stay in the region after graduation to a greater extent.

Comments: The TJTP explicitly notes that the JTF, "is seen to complement ESF+ and ERDF with a focus on the steel industry's climate transition. FRO complements the ERDF's efforts within political objective 2, which is aimed to a greater extent at small and medium-sized enterprises. [JTF] will support large companies with facilities included in the EU ETS." SMEs aided are directly linked to steel production.

Comments: The plan does not foresee a change in industry and so appears to assume that new jobs in the steel industry and its assoicated value chains will be of the same qulaity (and that this is sufficient).

Comments: Passive reference is made to gender disparities in the workforce.

Although no specific interventions are apparent in the plan, it intends to report all spending on skill for smart specilisation as gender mainstreaming spending, "The program's skills-enhancing interventions, 023. Development of skills for smart specialisation, industrial transformation, entrepreneurship and business adaptability, will fully include interventions to counter a gender-segregated labor market. Therefore the programme's budget for these interventions is classified as code 2, gender mainstreaming, in table 8."

Comments: There is no exclusion list and risks from unsustainable biomass are not addressed:
- According to estimations made by the Swedish Forest Agency (SFA) only about 3% of the productive forests are managed with other forest managed methods than clear felling.
- 62% of Swedish managed forests today are 60 years or younger and in certain counties up to 77%. Since 1950s, the area of forest that is less than 20 years old has increased by 80%; this age structure imbalance has negative implications on biodiversity and eco-system services and the imbalance will be exaggerated If current high harvesting levels are maintained this expected imbalance - and its negative biodiversity impacts - will grow (backed up by scenario calculations from the Swedish Forest Agency
- Recent calculations show that carbon sequestration in Swedish forests has decreased by 5 million tons of CO2 per annum and Swedish Forest Agency (SKA 22) models indicate that under “business as usual” forest management (let alone with an increase in harvesting for bionergy), carbon sequestration is expected to decrease.
- The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) repotyed to the EU commission that 14 of
15 forest nature types in Sweden do not have a favorable conservation status. Furthermore, of
assessed forest species in Sweden, i.e. species for which forests are important habitat, 2041 are red-listed and around 1000 in Sweden are threatened (IUCN categories). Of these, more than 700
are negatively impacted by current forest practices and about 400 of these are directly negatively
impacted by clear cutting.

Therefore, if business as usual is allowed to continue in Swedish forests, more species will be threatened, and some are likely to become extinct. Impacts will be even worse with an increase in harvesting.

Comments: Presumably air pollution will be addressed by the shift to renewable-based steel production. However, potential water quality issues, soil pollution or other negative effects from e.g. iron ore mining are not even mentioned (far from tackled).

Comments: The plan includes interventions which would support, "efforts aimed at manufacturing processes for the promotion of circularity which can, for example, contribute to the emergence of integrated value chains for material flows within the steel industry," and makes reference to industry actor circularity/recycling targets. It also notes that, "in 2020, the government decided on a national strategy for a circular economy with a focus on circular production, consumption
and business models, as well as non-toxic and circular material cycles."

Comments: It is not clear whether the investments support in large enterprises could not be covered by other funds, or through preferential loans (such as those supported through Pillar II of the JTM), although it mentions that complementarity with the Innovation Fund will be sought.

Comments: There is little justficiation for the different levels of involvement for the different groups - for example, it is not clear why, "Civil organisations and interest organisations within the environment and climate work, or in relevant technical and substantive matters," have only been, invited to participate in the written consultations."

Comments: The consultation ran from 26th November 2021 to 16th Decmber 2021 (less than 3 weeks). It is not clear there were other opportunities to contribute before the draft was consulted on.

Comments: It states that, "The social partners have been involved in the development of the programme. In addition to Arbetsförmedlingen and affected industrial companies, a dialogue has begun with representatives of trade unions, mainly through the cooperative organisation Trade unions in industry."

Comments: The plans tates that, "municipalities are important in Sweden's climate work. Due to their proximity to the citizens, their roles in physical planning and as large employers, they are important climate actors in the work towards set climate goals. The municipalities drive local development in collaboration with companies, organisations, residents and other actors and thereby contribute to reaching set national and local goals."

Contacts with the Sami Parliament "have been initiated". It notes that, "The Sami people in Norrbotten are an indigenous people, which means that the Sami have a special right to preserve and develop their language and culture, including their industries. The Sami are the only recognized indigenous people in Europe, an ethnic and cultural minority that lives mainly in the traditional Sami region – Sápmi."
It also states that, "The county board in Norrbotten county has participated in meetings at regional level and provided opinions."

There is a detailed section in the overarching operational programme for the TJTPs setting ou the communication strategy, which includes communicating the benefit of investments at local, regional and national level, with a target audience including the general public.